The Labor Market Is Broken. And I Have A Spreadsheet to Prove It.
On Marginally Attached Workers to the Labor Market
Since September 2024, I’ve applied to over 380 jobs. That’s not a typo. It’s a data point: one of many I’ve tracked in a spreadsheet that started as a way to stay organized and has since become a quiet monument to a broken system.
Let’s walk through the numbers in my job application funnel:
Total Applications: 380+
Total Rejections: 325 (85.53%)
First-Round Interviews: 46 (12.11%)
Second-Round Interviews: 32 (69.57% of firsts)
Third-Round Interviews: 13 (40.63% of seconds)
Final Round Interviews: 3 (23.08% of thirds)
Offers: 0
These numbers tell a story many job seekers already know too well: the system is not just competitive: it’s dysfunctional.
I’m not going to tell you how I went to an Ivy League school. I’m not going to tell you how I studied abroad at the oldest English speaking university in the world, and I’m certainly not going to tell you that I have a masters degree from its arch rival. All that doesn’t matter.
And I won’t tell you how I have basically stopped applying for jobs (because networking, referrals, and seeking out those “undercover” jobs not even posted publicly is a better use of time than sitting at the computer sifting through online job boards).
The Fallacy of the Funnel That Doesn’t Convert
At first glance, the funnel looks healthy. If you make it to a first-round interview, there’s a better-than-even chance you’ll progress to the next stage. From there, nearly half move to third round interviews, and about a quarter make it to final rounds. But despite running this gauntlet three separate times, across three different companies, I’ve received zero offers.
This is not just a story of bad luck. It’s a reflection of something larger: a labor market flooded with highly qualified candidates, hiring processes that drag on for months, and decision-making that increasingly favors risk aversion over potential.
Ghosted by the Algorithm
Before you even speak to a human, your resume has to survive the Applicant Tracking System (ATS): a machine whose job it is to parse your career into keywords. If your resume doesn’t mirror the job description verbatim, you’re out. (I actually got interviewed for a job at Coinbase by just packing as many keywords as I could into my resume with ChatGPT… and I was shocked that this actually worked to beat out 1,168 other applicants for a screener round…. which was an aptitude test, all before I even spoke with a human).
And even when you make it through the screeners, you’re not guaranteed feedback. I’ve had final-round interviews where the recruiter stopped responding entirely. I was told I was a “top contender,” and “one of two finalists” then never heard from the company again, until I followed up 4 times, and emailed every single participant in my panel interview, twice.
The Unspoken Cost
This job search hasn’t just been emotionally exhausting. It’s been financially and professionally destabilizing. I’ve paused long-term plans. I’ve liquidated a 401K. I’ve juggled freelance work and contract roles to stay afloat. I’ve questioned my value, despite data that tells me otherwise: I advance through interviews, I receive glowing feedback, and I’m consistently in the final rounds. And yet… no offer.
What does that say about the market? That it’s no longer about talent alone. It’s no longer even about logic or common sense.
What We’re Really Up Against
We’re not in a meritocracy. We’re in a market where:
Roles are posted but not truly open (headcount freezes or internal backfills).
Overqualification is penalized. Experience becomes a liability, not a strength.
Recruiters are overwhelmed with hundreds, or literally thousands, of applications per posting.
Hiring managers are indecisive, often relying on vague “culture fit” as a disqualifier.
Worst of all, there’s little accountability. No obligation to respond. No feedback loop. Just silence.
The System Isn’t Working. But We Still Are.
If you’re in the trenches of a job search right now, I see you. I am you.
And if you're a hiring manager or recruiter reading this: please, take note. A resume in your inbox is not a commodity. It's a person, navigating a broken system, still showing up, still trying, still hoping.
The labor market might be broken. But the people inside it? We're still resilient as hell… until we aren’t…
According to Jonathan Levin at Bloomberg Opinion, the share of those marginally attached to the labor force, or “discouraged workers” has been on the steady increase month over month, despite payroll prints that overwhelmingly say “this is fine. Everything’s fine with the labor market. We’re in for a soft landing…”
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the technical metric for U-6, the percentage of the labor force that is either marginally attached, part time for economic reasons, and or discouraged in searching for work is at 7.7%.
That is the number we should be focussing on as a society, and that should be the number that demands a half-point interest rate cut from the Governors at the Federal Reserve this July. Not the laughable U-3 metric that unemployment actually went down this month to 4.1% from 4.2%.
And, if like me and my spreadsheet, you want the official data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has it here.
If you’ve experienced something similar, or want to share how you’re navigating the strange, slow-motion collapse of professional norms in this frozen labor market, I’d love to hear from you.
If you know someone who’s a bit discouraged about their current job search, forward them this email, and let them know it’s not them.
And if you’re hiring: I’m right here. And I come with a spreadsheet full of receipts.
And… if you have an inside track to Jerome Powell… please send this article his way…
So, so timely and articulate Alex. Thank you for voicing what we're all experiencing.